Following Game 7, we decided to get together to talk about the Heat’s championship run and lay the 2012-13 NBA season to rest.
Predicting the outcome of any NBA game isn’t an exact science. There are lots of previews to each game that incorporate statistical analysis, the talent levels of each roster, injuries, how well the two teams have been playing coming into the game, etc. These are usually written by experts who often times get it wrong which is why the game is both played and watched. Perhaps the most famous method of predicting the winner of any game is “Lawler’s Law”. It’s a simple method – created by former Philadelphia 76ers trainer Al Domenico and popularized by L.A. Clippers play-by-play announcer Ralph Lawler – which says that the first team to score 100 points wins.
Of course, using Lawler’s Law as a tool to predict who’s going to win between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers requires that you watch the game and hold off on declaring a winner until one of them reaches that golden number sometime in the fourth quarter. I have my own, less precise method of declaring a winner in the middle of a game. It’s a method that comes after watching thousands(???) of games played over the years, one that any basketball junkie can use and one that many probably use without realizing they use it.
My method (it’s really more of a feeling) is somewhat tough to put into writing. Yes it incorporates the talent level of the two teams or anything else you might find a game preview. In addition to those things I factor in that ever elusive Ms. Momentum, the number of careless mistakes the teams are making, which team is controlling the game tempo, who’s making the proper and more impactful plays, etc. I take all of these things into consideration and simply watch the game. In each game there’s usually about a 3 minute stretch of play that occurs where I can declare with a reasonable amount of confidence who’s going to win. That 3 minute stretch can happen at anytime during the game, but it typically happens for me after about 18 minutes of game play. Like I mentioned above, this isn’t an exact science so sometimes it doesn’t occur at all.
Game 6 of the 2013 NBA Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers is the perfect example of my method (I should give it a name). In the first half neither team could get any separation from each other. Miami held a 1 point edge after the first 24 minutes so basically the game was tied when the 3rd quarter started. That was when the Pacers made the first real attempt by either team to seize momentum by going on a 9-2 run which forced Miami to call timeout at the 8:49 mark.
Coming out of the timeout the Heat needed to respond and one would expect that’s exactly what they do. It was here that the 3 minute stretch happened for me. Lebron James missed a 3 on Miami’s first possession followed by consecutive turnovers by both teams, some missed shots, a Roy Hibbert layup off an offensive rebound and a free throw by Hibbert. The Heat have to take another timeout.
In the middle of those plays I turned towards my brother and said, “Game 7.” I said this despite the fact that it was only an 11 point lead. At that point it was the biggest lead of the game. It was also the first time either team had grabbed control of the game. Not only did the Pacers take control, but the Heat failed to make plays to take it back.
For anyone who was also watching the game, you know Indiana held a double-digit lead heading into the 4th quarter and that Miami cut the lead to 4 points. You’ll also recall a play where James was called for a questionable offensive foul down the stretch that lead to the Pacers pushing the lead back to 13 points. I’m guessing this is where most people finally thought the game was out of reach for the Heat. For me, this where I knew my 3rd quarter prediction was about to come true.
Here at The Peoples Court, we like to play with the relationship between a basketball court and a court of law. We hold basketball trials and close each podcast with “court is adjourned.” And now, rather than selecting typical All-NBA teams, we’ve assembled our All-Courtroom teams. Unlike an All-NBA team, or an All-Star team, we’ve made sure to combine complimentary players who excel not only as individuals, but as an actual team. Without further ado, presenting The Prosecution and The Defense. Continue reading
In a classic scene at the end of the movie Juice, Omar Epps’ character Q gets into a fight with Tupac’s character Bishop. The fight leads to Bishop’s death, much to the chagrin of Q. As Q walks away, another kid tells him, “Yo, you got the juice now, man.” I bring up this scene because it’s the source of this episode’s title, which, as you may have guessed, revolves around steroids and performance enhancing drugs in the NBA. We also talked about underpaid superstars, Billy Hunter’s leave from the players union, and the role of superstars in the NBPA.
- 00:00 – Introduction
- 02:00 – Performances and Embarrassments of the Week
- 08:10 – Was it okay for the Rockets to attempt to break the record for three-point field goals at the end of a blowout?
- 13:00 – Steroids in the NBA: who around the league might be juicing?
- 33:00 – LeBron is underpaid!
- 44:05 – Superstars should take a more active role in the union
- 65:15 – Setting the stage for Lakers vs. Heat and Lamont and Adam’s wager
- Warriors foul to stop Rockets from setting record (The Basketball Jones)
- The gaps in NBA drug testing (True Hoop)
- LeBron says he’s underpaid (ESPN)
- Kobe wants stars to take a bigger role in the union (Ball Don’t Lie)
- Comparing the annual road trips
With the big sports stories this week coming from outside the NBA, Lebron James broke a record and his Heat team decided it was time to remind people they’re still the champs. We powered through some technical difficulties that are both annoying and funny.
- Working Bodies: NBA Head Injuries
- Knicks’ Owner James Dolan Goes James Bond on Carmelo Anthony
- NBA Announces 2013 All-Star Starters
- Lebron James’ Journey to Become The Youngest Player to 20,000 points
The past week in the NBA brought forth all sorts of goodies, including news of a potential Kings sale, an unhappy Dirk Nowitzki, and another coaching change. Apparently the week was so noteworthy that we talked for over an hour. Watch the entire episode above, or jump to a specific topic via the rundown below.
- 00:00 – Introduction
- 03:35 – Sacramento Kings on the move?
- 12:10 – Quick Notes (Scott Skiles and Greg Oden)
- 20:20 – Performances and Embarrassments of the Week
- 27:35 – #HowDidHeGetPaid
- 29:40 – Dirk Nowitzki questions the directions of the Dallas Mavericks
- 41:50 – What do LeBron James and Tom Cruise have in common?
- Investor seeking to buy Kings (Yahoo)
- Steve Nash with the towel “assist” (YouTube)
- Kenneth Faried curses on air (YouTube)
- Luke Walton, #HowDidHeGetPaid
- Dirk Nowitzki questions Mavericks (ESPN)
When I studied abroad in England I tried to learn how to smoke. Everyone my age smoked at the time, and I wanted to figure it out, to be more than just a social smoker, to be a real smoker. It seems absurd now, but these are the things we do when we’re young. I bought a pack of cigarettes, Marlboro reds, for the records, went out to the quad of the dorms, lit one up and smoked it. When that one was gone, I lit another and smoked it too. Then I got light-headed, went back inside and gave up on cigarettes. Continue reading
It’s our final episode of 2012, and we took the time to talk about our favorite moments of the past year, plus Avery Johnson’s firing, teams and players that are on our radar, and debuted a new segment, “3 in the Key with Lamont.”